Hi Subscribers,
I wanted to share some exciting news about a new direction I’ll be taking with my humble Substack, Heavy Machinery. After reflecting on the current state of AI technology and investments, I’ve realized we are entering a critical phase. The bubble is starting to burst.
Over the past decade, I’ve been pointing out how the promises of AI often don’t match the reality, something I’ve discussed in my book and elsewhere. Many others have also noted that the huge investments and overhyped expectations are fueling a bubble that’s bound to pop.
Well, it’s no longer about to pop. It is popping as we speak.
I was being cautious about this declaration, as well as with the decision over making this a focus of the newsletter. But, as they say in elections, I’ve seen enough. I’ve decided to start documenting this development as it unfolds. I’ll be posting a series of linked journal entries, short musings, and links to keep track of these events, both for future reflection and to provide some insight into what’s happening during this fascinating moment. I think of this like either research notes for a book and/or an timeline or archive that we can reference to show how we fell so far from such a frothy peak.
It’s a really interesting time, and I’d love for you to follow along. It’s going to be a wild ride.
Thanks for being part of this,
Mike
"Generative" AI is really just a different kind of database search engine. As such, it can give us great insights into existing data, and as such, it is only as good as what it is in data set and what you ask if. There is no intelligence beyond the default ability of computers to manage larger and broader data sets than would be in any human mind. Once we start calling it what it is, it can become useful and take it's place as another data tool, nothing more.
As for Nvidia and the like, they are selling the shovels for the gold rush. We will still want gold and shovels, but once it is realized all the easy gold in those hills has been taken, the mining companies such as Microsoft and Google will be in a rough spot. Apple might turn out ok due to its slow half hearted strategy. Their iPhone commercial which basically makes fun of AI as a creepy cat killing parlor trick is spot on
It's funny how the mainstream media consensus has zeroed in on this narrative in the last few days. Bluesky has been boiling over with screen shots of all the headlines that are variations on the same theme. Zitron has been doing victory laps. Look forward to your take on all this.